Thursday, July 26, 2012

calypso population estimates

Other ways to gauge active population on calypso.  Active population is at least 200000 people at a time.  Take samples from the radar map.  Go to a busy area such as port atlantis or nea's place.  count up the green dots on the radar.  typically in the two areas, I count 40-200.  And the average would be (40+200)/2 or 120.  Now add in swamp camps, areas close to the first two, and twin peaks.  Twin peaks is it's own place with typically 100-300 at a time.  And from sampling different times of day, (every 3 hours is what I did, on 5 separate days) there is not much variation  for an average of 200 people in twin peaks.  Count people in buildings with auctioneers also. Surrounding areas amount to another 100 people per area.  For 80 areas of high population averaging 160 people per area.  Which brings the total estimate to  12800 active players at a time for populated areas.
Now for the less populated areas, such as outposts, mining grounds, hunting grounds, and wide open spaces.  Take there are at least 2 active players at a time in a desolate area.  Yourself and one other player. Sometimes three and sometimes 4 even.  Which average is 2.5 players for out of the way and on most of the planet, areas.
To figure the total areas under consideration consider the area of calypso as a whole.  1500 square kilometers in all.  Consider 10% is water though sometimes that counts also, a lower number over the whole 150+ square kilometers of water, leviathan hunting is fun, 1 person per radar area.  The other 1350 square kilometers includes the low areas of 4.5 players per radar screen and the high areas of 160 people per radar area.  So take out 80 times a radar area or 10000 square meters (I took this from range of my Murdand Groover) for a radar area. 
Now convert that to square kilometers, for .01 square kilometers.  For 80 times 0.01 or .8 square kilometers of high population of 12800 people.  1500 sqaure kilometers minus 0.8 sq. km. leaves 1499.2 to account for.  Water is another 150 at 2.5 people per radar area or 15000 radar areas and 37500 people.  Now for the rest.  What is left is 1349 at 2.5 players per radar area or 134920 radar areas and 337300 players at a time.  Add the figures up (12800+37500+337300) and get 387600 players active at a time. 
Seems incredible that many at once.  But yet the figures are there.  Don't like the estimates?  Cut them in half, still 193800 players active at a time.  Take out times there is no one but yourself.  Another 30% trim and still 135660 people at a time.  So I have some confidence in saying there are at least 130000 people active at a time, anytime, on planet calypso and more likely over 200000 active people.  Similar figures can be obtained for other planets and areas.  The figures only go up during busy seasons and special events.  Hope you enjoyed this estimate of population on calypso and hope to see you sometime, (right now) on planet calypso. 

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